605am OBS, Saturday, September 28th
Breezy morning with partly cloudy skies. Light E-ENE trades filling to moderate paces towards lunch. Small Craft Advisory for Maui Channels - Big Island SE and Leeward waters.
Rising fun-size NNW. Small SSW + Near average trade swell. Call 596-SURF: 7a, Noon, 4pm (recap-forecast).
North Shore:
Rising 13 sec NNW. Nice offshore trades filling. Sunset 1-2' occ. +; Rocky Pt 1-2'; Pipe 0-1' occ 2', Chuns 1-2'; Jockos 1-2' occ. +; Laniakea 1-2' occ. +; Ali'i Beach Park 1 occ 2' under scattered clouds.West:
Rising 13 sec NNW + Holding 16 sec SW-SSW. Clean offshores. Makaha is 1 occ 2' on the combo peaks. Partly cloudy skies.Town:
Holding 16 sec SW-SSW. Down and dropping 11 sec SSW. Textured w/ glassy patches due to moderate E-ENE trades. Waikiki reefs (Canoe's-Queens) are 1-1.5'; Kaisers-Rockpiles to Ala Moana to Kewalos are 1-2' occ + or chest high sets for top reefs. Partly cloudy skies.Diamond Head:
Holding 16 sec SW-SSW. Down and dropping 11 sec SSW. Choppy conditions from the side shore trades. Surf's peaky at 1-2' occ. 2.5' combo peaks at takeoff. Scattered clouds.Sandy's:
Holding 16 sec SW-SSW. Down and dropping 11 sec SSW + trade wrap. Bumpy with moderate side-offshore trades. Full Pt/Half Pt are 1-2' occ. higher. Shore break is looking better at 1-2' occ. higher on the combo peaks. Scattered clouds.East Makapu'u:
Holding 7 sec East trade wind swell + minor rising N wrap. Choppy from the moderate East trades. Surf's 1-2' and just shorebreak focused on the left side of the bay. Scattered-broken clouds.Winds
10-20+mph ENE to E
5-15+mph East Trade
5-15mph East Trade
Isolated Leeward sea breezes likely
5-15+mph East Trade
10-20mph East Trade
North
Primary
Rising 13s NNWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Dropping 9s NWHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Good offshores
3' midday
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NNWHaw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
NNW-N
Primary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Rising early Evening 18s NWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
Primary
Up & Rising 12s NWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
5'+ late afternoon
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NNWHaw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Fair to good
West
Primary
Holding 16s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Rising 13s NNWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NNWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Dropping 14s SWHaw: 0
Face: 0
Good
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Secondary
Dropping 9s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & Rising 12s NWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Up & Rising 17s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
Primary
Up & dropping 11s NNWHaw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Secondary
Up & dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Fair to good
South
Primary
Holding 16s SWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Dropping 11s SSWHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Fair to good
Primary
Dropping 14s SWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Rising Later 19s SWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Fair to good
Primary
Up & Rising 18s SWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Rising Later 20s SSWHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Good early , fair later
Primary
Up & Rising 17s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Secondary
Up & holding 16s SWHaw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Fair to good
Isolated 3' later
Primary
Up & dropping 15s SSWHaw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Secondary
Dropping 15s SWHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Fair to good
east
Primary
Holding 7s EHaw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Secondary
Rising 12s NHaw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
slightly bumpy
Primary
Dropping 6s EHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
Up & dropping 10s NHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Mushy
Primary
Dropping 8s NHaw: 1-1.5
Face: 1-2
Secondary
Rising 6s ENEHaw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Mushy
Primary
Up & Rising 6s ENEHaw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Mushy
Primary
Up & holding 7s ENEHaw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Secondary
None NONEHaw: 0
Face: 0
Choppy
Current Swells:
Saturday 09/28Primary: Rising 13s NNW surf @1-2 occ +
Secondary: Holding 16s SW surf @1 occ 2 Secondary: Holding 7s E surf @1-2
Marine Warnings:
Saturday 09/28Small Craft Advisory for Maui Channels - Big Island SE and Leeward waters
Sailing Report:
Saturday 09/28Good due to light to moderate 10-20+ mph E-ENE trades filling in towards lunch.
Diving Report:
Saturday 09/28North shores: Fair with 2' surf and minor surges in shallower waters...better for deeper dives.... conditions semi-clean side-offshore trades and partly cloudy skies. West shores: Fair for most zones due to rising NNW + SSW surf (deeper dives better) with light trades, and mostly clear skies. South shores: Fair for select dive zones (best bet deeper zones) with small surf, moderate offshore ENE trades filling, and partly cloudy skies. East shores: Poor-fair overall with moderate onshore trades, near average surf, and broken to scattered clouds.
Oahu
Maui
Kauai
Big Island
Weather
Surf Advisory and Warning CriteriaLocation/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
Big Picture
INACTIVE.Get the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center outlook for the 2017 Central Pacific Hurricane Season calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones to either develop or cross into the Central Pacific with a 40% chance for an above-normal season, a 40% chance for a normal season, and a 20% chance for a below-normal season. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 mph. An upgrade to a tropical storm occurs when cyclonic circulation becomes more organized and maximum sustained winds gust between 39 mph and 73 mph. A tropical storm is then upgraded into Category 1 hurricane status as maximum sustained winds increase to between 74 mph and 95 mph. (The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, is reserved for storms with winds exceeding 156 mph).
Tropical cyclones go by many names around the world, and the terminology can get confusing. Once a tropical cyclone strengthens to the point where it has gale-force winds—39 mph or greater—it becomes a tropical storm. A storm that reaches tropical storm strength usually gets its own name to help us quickly identify it in forecasts and warnings. Once a tropical storm begins producing sustained winds of around 75 mph, we call the storm a typhoon in the western Pacific near Asia and a hurricane in the oceans on either side of North America. A “typhoon” and a “hurricane” are the same kind of storm, they just go by different names…it’s only a matter of geography.
NWS criteria for High Surf Advisories & Warnings.
In coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i, the NWS uses the criteria below for the issuance of High Surf Advisories & Warnings in coordination with civil defense agencies & water safety organizations in Hawai`i.
All surf height observations & forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
Advisory and Warning Criteria Location
Warning North-Facing Shores 15 Feet 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet 20 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet 12 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet 15 Feet
'Travel Time' Buoy 51101 to Waimea Buoy. Distance: 269 nautical miles (~310 miles). Angle: 307 deg
Wave Wave Wave Depth Wave Direction (deg)----------
Period Length Speed Shallow 295, 305, 315, 325, 335, 345, 355
(s) (ft) (nm/h) (ft) Travel Time (hours)----------
10sec. 512. 15. 256. 17.3, 17.7, 17.6, 16.9, 15.7, 14.0, 11.9
12sec. 737. 18. 369. 14.5, 14.8, 14.6, 14.0, 13.0, 11.6, 9.9
14sec. 1003. 21. 502. 12.4, 12.7, 12.5, 12.0, 11.2, 10.0, 8.5
16sec. 1310. 24. 655. 10.8, ,1 1.1, 11.0, 10.5, 9.8, 8.7, 7.4
18sec. 1658. 27. 829. 9.6, 9.8, 9.8, 9.4, 8.7, 7.8, 6.6
20sec. 2047. 30. 1024. 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.0 5.9
22sec. 2477. 33. 1239. 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.1 6.3 5.4
24sec. 2948. 36. 1474. 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.5 5.8 4.9
Tropical Storms - wind 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 -winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 -winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 -winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states or phases. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña,” require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, unlike ENSO which is stationary. In a nutshell, more active means more surf.
Kelvin wave (A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape as it moves in the alongshore direction over time.)
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